Chocolate: Worth its weight in gold?

“In 20 years chocolate will be like caviar. It will become so rare and so expensive that the average Joe just won’t be able to afford it.” So says John Mason, executive director and founder of the Ghana-based Nature Conservation Research Council, quoted in The Independent.

“Chocolate consumption is increasing faster than cocoa production — and it’s not sustainable.” So says Tony Lass, chairman of the Cocoa Research Association, at the annual conference of Britain’s Academy of Chocolate.

Fewer and fewer African farmers are growing cocoa (which can be grown only 10-15 degrees on either side of the equator) because of the intensity of farming it, pest problems, and the low return on their investment, in order to grow other products that are easier to farm for a reasonable profit — for example, palm oil.

American growers (primarily in Central America) allowed their cocoa production to decline radically and are slowly rebuilding production only in the last few years, but they won’t be able to match demand for a long time, if ever, especially since demand from the Chinese is expected to increase radically in the near future. And, frankly, despite the doubling of cocoa prices in just the last 6 years, to an all-time high in 30 years, there’s not much incentive to grow such a capital- and labor-intensive crop anyway, since most of the profits from cocoa go to commodities traders who speculate on prices and to the multinational corporations who control processing and sales — but the profit definitely does not go to the farmers.